Matthew's Journal

This is now obsolete. The new rules for specialty is that you only get an extra die, you don't reroll 10's. This is per the Dark Ages Vampire rules.

The URL mentioned in your old journal is missing an "a" . Regards, Granddad

I think your first graph is the most helpful for me. I haven't used the WoD system before, just D20 and a few homebrewed ones, but it seems like the success vs. Fail rate is the same for most systems. I really like that first graph though.

-edited for spam

That is the best quote ever! I'm putting it on my quote wall. My brother just became a vegetarian, so I think that makes me laugh even more.

I agree with most of your comments. In my mind, the biggest downfall of this movie was Dolores Umbridge. While they came close, they just couldn't get that exquisite character. When I read the books, I felt incredible loathing towards her. In the movie, I find her annoying. I thought the new laws were definitely not presented in a way that made their impact truly felt.

This last book was a complete success. I think the two biggest reasons are:
1. it didn't follow the classic school year. That made me feel like really anything could happen. It suddenly added an even greater dimension of suspense as Harry was put in more real-world danger.
2. as you said, Voldemort really takes on his role as villain. Since he truly takes over the ministry and acts as Big Brother, it is great to see him finally using his infamous power to accomplish creepy goals.
Rowling finishes a classic.

Your charting is amazing. How did you do the math?

I'm looking to do similar probability charting for Victoriana - a similar mechanic with d6 instead of d10, and rerolls on 6.

Think you can help me out?

You are so related to your Daddy!

That is truly AMAZING!

Brenton,

First, thanks for your comment.

The plots that I posted do take into account the 10-again rule. Since a 8, 9, or 10 produces a success, that means that there is a probability of 3/10 or 30% to gain 1 or more successes on a single die roll. You'll note that this is reflected on the successes probability chart. The probability of only 1 success for a single die is 0.2 + (0.1 * 0.7) or 27%. That requires a roll of 8, 9, or 10 but with the 10 followed by a re-roll of 7 or less. 2 or more successes require a roll of a 10 and then a subsequent roll of 8, 9, or 10. That equates to a probability of 1/10 * 3/10 or 3%. Again, that is reflected on the successes probability chart. Given the numbers that you give in your comment it appears that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the probabilities for a 10-sided die, particularly with the added complexity of considering the potential for additional rolls.

I have not included the zero dice pool chance roll in my plots since it uses a different set of rules than a standard roll. Furthermore, since the probabilities surrounding botches can easily be subtracted from the zero successes probabilities, I haven't denoted them separately from the 0 success curve.

Again, thanks for taking a look at my work.

Cheers,
Matthew Miller

This is not quite correct, as you do not take into account the standard "10-again" rule, which states that if you roll a 10, then you gain a success and re-roll with the same rules. Therefore, for 1 die, you have an exactly 1/3 chance of success.

Additionally, just for clarification, the botch rule is if your dice pool is reduced to less than 1 die, you can still roll a "chance die", which succeeds on a 10 and "dramatically fails" on a 1. This is also subject to the 10-again rule, giving a 1.11111.../10 chance of success.

I did not know that. As a matter of fact not only have I done that but all the install guys I know do that. But not anymore!

That is VERY cool! That guy had way to much time on his hands...

Cool!!!!!!!!

Congratulations! That is great news.
Daddy and I are beaming.

That a girl! PBR!!! Christy would have had a $4 bottle of wine.

"Paired her plate with an American-style lager" makes it sound so fancy. It was a PBR!

Thanks.

thanks you solved my doubts about symmetry around the sample correlation.

Sexy! I was always hoping someone would bang this data out - my attempts to do so always fell apart.

I'm curious - how long did it take you to do all this? And what tools did you use?

Also, do you have this data available in table form by any chance? The graphs are useful, but I like the numbers too.