Matthew's Journal

I'm retiring the use of this software to run my journal and I've switched to Wordpress. The transition is still a work in progress, but, for the moment, you should use the URL millercommmatt.com/wordpress. Eventually, you'll just be able to use millercommamatt.com to view my journal, photos, and anything else I put up.

My Brother's Video of the Most Recent Space Shuttle Launch:

My Brother-in-Law's Video of our Recent Ski Trip:

Ski Trip 2010 from Cliff Cartwright on Vimeo.

Wired has a great article about the anti-vaccine movement and how fears over autism, fueled by few if any scientific facts, have the potential to lead to outbreaks of almost forgotten diseases because more and more parents are choosing not to vaccinate their children. At the heart of the matter is the battle scientists must wage against pundits and misguided advocates who use unsupported claims and sensationalism to further their agendas. If scientists (or any truly credible advocate) are going to maintain legitimate credibility, the only recourse is carefully researched and verified logical reason. However, the sad truth is that sensationalism usually trumps reason in the realm of public attention. After all, there hasn't been a single scientific study that ties vaccines to autism, yet the debate rages on. In fact, the scientific evidence suggests that their shouldn't be a debate in the first place.

When it comes to my field of atmospheric science, a similar cloud surrounds the debate over climate change on both sides of the debate. Careful reason is often overshadowed by anecdotal data and conclusions based on ideology and not facts. Because of this, I often ask myself as a scientists, "What can I do to ensure that good science prevails over the bad?" How do you assert credibility as an legitimate expert when true experts are constantly vilified as biased mouthpieces with evil hidden agendas; particularly when, in an ironic twist, it's biased mouthpieces with evil hidden agendas that do the vilifying. The internet, despite being an invaluable tool for research and data dissemination, in many way compounds the issue. After all, how to you know if the blog post your reading is being written by an experienced researcher or a corporate marketing executive? How do you know that the author has done their due diligence in assuring that their claims are valid and robust.

The pro-vaccine camp has more-or-less been beat down to the point where they state that when enough children die, the public will finally understand their message that the risk associated with vaccines is far outweighed by the risk from the diseases they protect against. Perhaps the climate change debate will only be settled in one hundred years when we can see if the sea-level rose as predicted. Off the top of my head I think the most recent IPCC report predicted a sea-level rise on the order of three feet by the year 2100. If the sea-level only rises one foot will the debate rage on?

[An Epidemic of Fear: How Panicked Parents Skipping Shots Endangers Us All]

The following video has been pretty popular on the internet recently, but I wanted to share it anyway. Composer Jarbas Agnelli saw a photo in the newspaper of birds sitting on power lines and it reminded him of notes on a music staff. So, using an unedited version of the picture he composed a song using the birds' positions on the power lines just like you would notes on a musical staff to create the melody. The result was beautiful.

Birds on the Wires from Jarbas Agnelli on Vimeo.

This graph from the web comic PhD explains my productivity perfectly.

http://www.phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=1219

Today is my birthday. I'm now 27. I'd like to thank everyone who has sent me happy birthday wishes. I appreciate them all.

The National Electric Code (NEC) states:

NEC ARTICLE 400 Flexible Cords and Cables General 400.1 Scope.
This article covers general requirements, applications, and construction specifications for flexible cords and flexible cables.
400.8 Uses Not Permitted.
Flexible cords and cables shall not be used for the following:
(1) As a substitute for the fixed wiring of a structure
(2) Where run through holes in walls, structural ceilings, suspended ceilings, dropped ceilings, or floors
(3) Where run through doorways, windows, or similar openings
(4) Where attached to building surfaces
Exception: Flexible cord and cable shall be permitted to be attached to building surfaces in accordance with the provisions of 368.8.
(5) Where concealed by walls, floors, or ceilings or located above suspended or dropped ceilings

What this means is that if the power cord for your wall-mounted TV - or any other appliance for that matter - is run through the wall, you're in violation of the electrical code. What you're supposed to do it have a standard power socket installed behind the TV and coil up the slack in the power cord to keep it out of sight.

In you do run your cord through the wall and there is a fire, even if the cord in question isn't the cause of the fire, your insurance coverage could be invalidated because of the code violation.

I previously posted about the probabilities of successes for dice roll for the old White Wolf World of Darkness role-playing game system. A few years ago White Wolf release a new system for their games set in the World of Darkness.

The new system does not have varying difficulties. Instead the difficulty of all rolls are fixed at 8. The variable in the new system is the number of dice you throw for a given action: the size of your dice pool. Rolls of one no longer cancel out successes. Also, you only botch when you roll a one with a dice pool of one.

The chart below shows the success probabilities for the new system.

Everything should be pretty self explanatory. For a dice pool of 1, the probability for 0 successes also includes the probability to botch. If the dice pool is one, the botch probability is 10% and can be subtracted from the "0 successes" probability value (70%) if you're interested in the chance to get zero successes without botching (60%).

All stats are based on 1 million simulated rolls for each dice pool size. 10s are re-rolled as per the rules. An 8 or better is considered a successes. MATLAB was used for all calculations.

This is the link for a PDF that can be used for printing: new_WoD_prob.pdf

The next figure is the percent distribution of successes for each of the dice pool sizes. While the figure above shows the cumulative probability of meeting or surpassing a certain success threshold, this figure shows the actual distribution of successes rolled and gives you a better idea of what a roll of a certain dice pool size will produce.