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New Wold of Darkness Success Probabilites

06/18/09

Permalink 04:26:11 pm, by millercommamatt, 276 words   English (US)
Categories: General

New Wold of Darkness Success Probabilites

I previously posted about the probabilities of successes for dice roll for the old White Wolf World of Darkness role-playing game system. A few years ago White Wolf release a new system for their games set in the World of Darkness.

The new system does not have varying difficulties. Instead the difficulty of all rolls are fixed at 8. The variable in the new system is the number of dice you throw for a given action: the size of your dice pool. Rolls of one no longer cancel out successes. Also, you only botch when you roll a one with a dice pool of one.

The chart below shows the success probabilities for the new system.
Click for larger image.

Everything should be pretty self explanatory. For a dice pool of 1, the probability for 0 successes also includes the probability to botch. If the dice pool is one, the botch probability is 10% and can be subtracted from the "0 successes" probability value (70%) if you're interested in the chance to get zero successes without botching (60%).

All stats are based on 1 million simulated rolls for each dice pool size. 10s are re-rolled as per the rules. An 8 or better is considered a successes. MATLAB was used for all calculations.

This is the link for a PDF that can be used for printing: new_WoD_prob.pdf

The next figure is the percent distribution of successes for each of the dice pool sizes. While the figure above shows the cumulative probability of meeting or surpassing a certain success threshold, this figure shows the actual distribution of successes rolled and gives you a better idea of what a roll of a certain dice pool size will produce.

Click for larger image.

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